OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-18
⚽ England Premier League · Sunday 18 October 2026, 13:00 UTC · finished
Brighton 2.00 5 - 0 1.40 Crystal Palace
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 56.6%64%-7.1%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 82.7%85%-2.5%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 75.9%81%-4.6%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 60.9%65%-3.7%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 60.0%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson55.2%23.7%21.1%
xgboost56.4%23.6%20.0%
logistic64.6%23.0%12.4%
Inputs the models saw
BrightonCrystal Palace
Elo (pre-match)17791674
Surface Elo17791674
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.001.40
Form trend-0.80-0.40
Season points per game3.003.00
Season goals for / game2.003.00
Season goals against / game0.001.00
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W3 W · 5 D
Brighton: last 5
15 OctHFK Kauno Zalgiris4 - 0W
10 OctASunderland2 - 0W
10 OctASunderland2 - 0W
19 SepHArsenal3 - 0W
13 SepACoventry5 - 0W
Crystal Palace: last 5
15 OctALyon2 - 3L
11 OctHNottingham Forest3 - 1W
11 OctHNottingham Forest3 - 1W
22 SepAPlymouth1 - 5L
20 SepALeeds0 - 0D
Head to head
08 Feb 2026Brighton0 - 1Crystal Palace
09 Nov 2025Crystal Palace0 - 0Brighton
05 Apr 2025Crystal Palace2 - 1Brighton
15 Dec 2024Brighton1 - 3Crystal Palace
03 Feb 2024Brighton4 - 1Crystal Palace
21 Dec 2023Crystal Palace1 - 1Brighton
15 Mar 2023Brighton1 - 0Crystal Palace
11 Feb 2023Crystal Palace1 - 1Brighton
14 Jan 2022Brighton1 - 1Crystal Palace
27 Sep 2021Crystal Palace1 - 1Brighton
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away5.6417.7%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.6521.5%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.5763.7%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5564.5%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.4540.8%16 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:23 UTC