| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 41.4% | 32% | +9.1% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.1% | 75% | -0.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 55.0% | 46% | +9.5% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.9% | 51% | +3.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.5% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 35.9% | 27.2% | 36.8% |
| xgboost | 37.2% | 26.2% | 36.6% |
| logistic | 44.8% | 28.1% | 27.1% |
| Pau FC | Nantes | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1469 | 1437 |
| Surface Elo | 1469 | 1437 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 1.20 |
| Rest days | 8 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 30 Oct | A | Metz | 3 - 1 | W |
| 30 Oct | A | Metz | 3 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Grenoble | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Grenoble | 2 - 1 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Guingamp | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Oct | H | Clermont | 1 - 1 | D |
| 30 Oct | H | Clermont | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | A | St Etienne | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Saint-Etienne | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Dunkerque | 2 - 3 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.35 | 42.5% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.10 | 32.3% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.98 | 50.5% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.77 | 56.5% | 06 Nov 06:15 |