| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 49.8% | 28% | +22.1% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.0% | 77% | -1.6% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 63.7% | 38% | +25.6% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.2% | 54% | -3.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.5% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 27.9% | 26.8% | 45.3% |
| xgboost | 32.5% | 27.6% | 39.9% |
| logistic | 28.4% | 28.8% | 42.8% |
| Tranmere | Rochdale | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1336 | 1578 |
| Surface Elo | 1336 | 1578 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.50 | -0.80 |
| Season points per game | 0.67 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.67 | 0.33 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 2 D |
| 03 Oct | A | Chesterfield | 2 - 4 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Chesterfield | 2 - 4 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Walsall | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Walsall | 1 - 1 | D |
| 22 Sep | H | Shrewsbury | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Huddersfield | 0 - 5 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Swindon | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Swindon | 1 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Fleetwood Town | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Fleetwood Town | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Apr 2023 | Rochdale | 2 - 2 | Tranmere |
| 25 Oct 2022 | Tranmere | 1 - 1 | Rochdale |
| 15 Jan 2022 | Tranmere | 2 - 0 | Rochdale |
| 11 Sep 2021 | Rochdale | 1 - 0 | Tranmere |
| 03 Aug 2019 | Tranmere | 2 - 3 | Rochdale |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.60 | 27.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.90 | 52.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.84 | 54.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |