| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.5% | 50% | -5.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 76.4% | 80% | -3.8% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 55.1% | 66% | -10.7% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.5% | 70% | -14.9% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 51.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 46.9% | 25.9% | 27.2% |
| xgboost | 40.8% | 24.8% | 34.4% |
| logistic | 31.7% | 26.4% | 41.9% |
| Waalwijk | Volendam | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1419 | 1422 |
| Surface Elo | 1419 | 1422 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 0.33 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.33 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 517 | 153 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 09 Oct | A | Heracles | 0 - 3 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | FC Emmen | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Roda JC Kerkrade | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 May | H | Go Ahead Eagles | 5 - 3 | W |
| 14 May | A | Feyenoord | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Rohda Raalte | 8 - 2 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Vitesse | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Almere City | 0 - 1 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Almere City | 1 - 4 | L |
| 07 Apr 2024 | Volendam | 3 - 2 | Waalwijk |
| 21 Oct 2023 | Waalwijk | 2 - 1 | Volendam |
| 05 May 2023 | Waalwijk | 4 - 1 | Volendam |
| 14 Jan 2023 | Volendam | 2 - 1 | Waalwijk |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.10 | 32.3% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.10 | 47.6% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.43 | 69.9% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.80 | 35.7% | 18 Oct 06:15 |