| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.6% | 62% | -5.1% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 80.3% | 85% | -4.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 72.9% | 80% | -6.9% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.5% | 64% | -10.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 55.6% | 22.9% | 21.5% |
| xgboost | 63.3% | 19.6% | 17.1% |
| logistic | 58.3% | 23.8% | 18.0% |
| Monaco | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1781 | 1640 |
| Surface Elo | 1781 | 1640 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Rest days | 22 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 6 W | 2 W · 2 D |
| 03 Oct | H | Pisa | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | H | Lens | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Strasbourg | 1 - 1 | D |
| 04 Sep | A | Paris Saint Germain | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Marseille | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Le Havre | 3 - 2 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Lorient | 2 - 2 | D |
| 03 Sep | H | Lille | 0 - 1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | Brest | 2 - 2 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | Lyon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Toulouse | 2 - 2 | Monaco |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Monaco | 1 - 0 | Toulouse |
| 07 Mar 2025 | Toulouse | 1 - 1 | Monaco |
| 07 Dec 2024 | Monaco | 2 - 0 | Toulouse |
| 18 Feb 2024 | Monaco | 1 - 2 | Toulouse |
| 20 Dec 2023 | Toulouse | 1 - 2 | Monaco |
| 03 Jun 2023 | Monaco | 1 - 2 | Toulouse |
| 06 Nov 2022 | Toulouse | 0 - 2 | Monaco |
| 04 Dec 2019 | Toulouse | 1 - 2 | Monaco |
| 02 Feb 2019 | Monaco | 2 - 1 | Toulouse |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 5.25 | 19.1% | 10 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.10 | 24.4% | 10 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.62 | 61.7% | 10 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.53 | 65.4% | 10 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.50 | 40.0% | 10 Oct 19:45 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.40 | 18.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.45 | 22.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.64 | 61.0% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.50 | 40.0% | 10 Oct 06:15 |