OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-29

🎾 tennis_atp_vienna_open · Thursday 29 October 2026, 12:30 UTC · scheduled

Tommy Paul 1.80 12:30 0.60 Luciano Darderi

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	64.6%	80%	-15.3%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.0%	35.2%
xgboost	63.5%	36.4%
logistic	70.8%	29.2%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Tommy Paul	Luciano Darderi
Elo (pre-match)	2007	1816
Surface Elo	2007	1816
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.80	0.60
Form trend	0.30	-0.60
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	2	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	1 W	1 W · 0 D

Tommy Paul: last 5

27 Oct	H	Andrey Rublev	2 - 0	W
24 Oct	H	Taylor Fritz	0 - 1	L
24 Oct	A	Taylor Fritz	0 - 2	L
23 Oct	A	Corentin Moutet	2 - 1	W
23 Oct	A	Corentin Moutet	2 - 1	W

Luciano Darderi: last 5

26 Oct	H	Matteo Arnaldi	2 - 0	W
21 Oct	A	James Duckworth	0 - 2	L
21 Oct	A	James Duckworth	0 - 2	L
10 Oct	H	Stefanos Tsitsipas	0 - 2	L
10 Oct	H	Stefanos Tsitsipas	0 - 2	L

Head to head

10 May 2026	Luciano Darderi	2 - 1	Tommy Paul
05 Aug 2024	Luciano Darderi	0 - 2	Tommy Paul

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Luciano Darderi	3.96	25.2%	29 Oct 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.27	78.7%	29 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Luciano Darderi	4.00	25.0%	29 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.25	80.0%	29 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Luciano Darderi	4.10	24.4%	29 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.25	80.0%	29 Oct 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Luciano Darderi	4.00	25.0%	29 Oct 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.22	82.0%	29 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Luciano Darderi	4.40	22.7%	29 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.29	77.5%	29 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Luciano Darderi	4.50	22.2%	29 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Tommy Paul	1.30	76.9%	29 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Luciano Darderi	4.04	24.8%	29 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.26	79.4%	29 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Luciano Darderi	4.00	25.0%	29 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.24	80.7%	29 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Luciano Darderi	4.00	25.0%	29 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.25	80.0%	29 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Luciano Darderi	4.20	23.8%	29 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.23	81.3%	29 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Luciano Darderi	3.90	25.6%	29 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.25	80.0%	29 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Luciano Darderi	4.40	22.7%	29 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.29	77.5%	29 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Luciano Darderi	4.50	22.2%	29 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Tommy Paul	1.30	76.9%	29 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Luciano Darderi	4.00	25.0%	29 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.24	80.7%	29 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Luciano Darderi	4.32	23.2%	29 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.26	79.4%	29 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Luciano Darderi	3.95	25.3%	29 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.18	84.8%	29 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	4.15	24.1%	29 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.25	80.0%	29 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Luciano Darderi	4.00	25.0%	29 Oct 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.20	83.3%	29 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Luciano Darderi	3.55	28.2%	29 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.20	83.3%	29 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Luciano Darderi	4.20	23.8%	29 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.23	81.3%	29 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Luciano Darderi	4.20	23.8%	29 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.23	81.3%	29 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Luciano Darderi	4.00	25.0%	29 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.25	80.0%	29 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Luciano Darderi	4.60	21.7%	29 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.22	82.0%	29 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Luciano Darderi	4.20	23.8%	29 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.20	83.3%	29 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 15:02 UTC