| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 49.6% | 48% | +2.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 75.6% | 78% | -2.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 66.3% | 67% | -0.8% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% | 49% | +12.6% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 50.1% | 27.2% | 22.7% |
| xgboost | 46.8% | 28.6% | 24.6% |
| logistic | 48.6% | 27.2% | 24.1% |
| Sabadell | Andorra | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1509 | 1422 |
| Surface Elo | 1509 | 1422 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 26 Sep | A | Celta B | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Celta B | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | Oviedo | 3 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Oviedo | 3 - 1 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Mallorca | 0 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Granada | 3 - 2 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Granada | 3 - 2 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Sp Gijon | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Sporting Gijon | 1 - 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Sociedad B | 1 - 3 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.60 | 27.8% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.10 | 47.6% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.71 | 58.5% | 02 Oct 06:15 |