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form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-28

🎾 tennis_atp_vienna_open · Wednesday 28 October 2026, 14:50 UTC · scheduled

Jakub Mensik 1.80 14:50 1.80 Adrian Mannarino

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	63.8%	83%	-19.5%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.0%	35.2%
xgboost	69.7%	30.2%
logistic	62.4%	37.6%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Jakub Mensik	Adrian Mannarino
Elo (pre-match)	1944	1842
Surface Elo	1944	1842
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.80	1.80
Form trend	0.30	-0.90
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	1	1
Head-to-head (last 10)	0 W	1 W · 0 D

Jakub Mensik: last 5

26 Oct	H	Lukas Neumayer	2 - 0	W
13 Oct	A	Arthur Gea	0 - 2	L
13 Oct	A	Arthur Gea	0 - 2	L
11 Oct	A	Francisco Cerundolo	2 - 1	W
11 Oct	A	Francisco Cerundolo	2 - 1	W

Adrian Mannarino: last 5

27 Oct	H	Ignacio Buse	2 - 1	W
25 Oct	H	Alex Molcan	2 - 0	W
24 Oct	A	Thiago Agustin Tirante	2 - 0	W
23 Oct	A	Nikoloz Basilashvili	0 - 2	L
23 Oct	H	Nikoloz Basilashvili	0 - 2	L

Head to head

16 Jun 2026

Adrian Mannarino

2 - 1

Jakub Mensik

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Adrian Mannarino	4.61	21.7%	28 Oct 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Jakub Mensik	1.21	82.6%	28 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Adrian Mannarino	4.50	22.2%	28 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Jakub Mensik	1.20	83.3%	28 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Adrian Mannarino	4.20	23.8%	28 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Jakub Mensik	1.20	83.3%	28 Oct 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Adrian Mannarino	4.40	22.7%	28 Oct 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Jakub Mensik	1.19	84.0%	28 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Adrian Mannarino	5.10	19.6%	28 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Jakub Mensik	1.22	82.0%	28 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Adrian Mannarino	5.40	18.5%	28 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Jakub Mensik	1.25	80.0%	28 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Adrian Mannarino	4.79	20.9%	28 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Jakub Mensik	1.19	84.0%	28 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Adrian Mannarino	4.50	22.2%	28 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Jakub Mensik	1.19	84.0%	28 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Adrian Mannarino	4.60	21.7%	28 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Jakub Mensik	1.20	83.3%	28 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Adrian Mannarino	4.40	22.7%	28 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Jakub Mensik	1.21	82.6%	28 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Adrian Mannarino	4.55	22.0%	28 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Jakub Mensik	1.20	83.3%	28 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Adrian Mannarino	5.10	19.6%	28 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Jakub Mensik	1.23	81.3%	28 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Adrian Mannarino	5.40	18.5%	28 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Jakub Mensik	1.25	80.0%	28 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Adrian Mannarino	4.50	22.2%	28 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Jakub Mensik	1.19	84.0%	28 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Adrian Mannarino	4.94	20.2%	28 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Jakub Mensik	1.21	82.6%	28 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Adrian Mannarino	4.10	24.4%	28 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Jakub Mensik	1.17	85.5%	28 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	4.75	21.1%	28 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.20	83.3%	28 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Adrian Mannarino	4.50	22.2%	28 Oct 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Jakub Mensik	1.16	86.2%	28 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Adrian Mannarino	4.00	25.0%	28 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Jakub Mensik	1.16	86.2%	28 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Adrian Mannarino	4.40	22.7%	28 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Jakub Mensik	1.21	82.6%	28 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Adrian Mannarino	4.40	22.7%	28 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Jakub Mensik	1.21	82.6%	28 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Adrian Mannarino	4.50	22.2%	28 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Jakub Mensik	1.20	83.3%	28 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Adrian Mannarino	4.80	20.8%	28 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Jakub Mensik	1.21	82.6%	28 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Adrian Mannarino	4.40	22.7%	28 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Jakub Mensik	1.18	84.8%	28 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 15:04 UTC