| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.5% | 45% | +2.1% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.1% | 77% | -1.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 61.2% | 64% | -2.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.5% | 48% | +7.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.4% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.9% | 26.6% | 33.5% |
| xgboost | 46.9% | 24.4% | 28.6% |
| logistic | 39.6% | 31.1% | 29.3% |
| Rio Ave | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1460 | 1405 |
| Surface Elo | 1460 | 1405 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.71 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.14 | 2.14 |
| Rest days | 21 | 22 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 1 W · 4 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Alverca | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Alverca | 0 - 1 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Estrela | 3 - 3 | D |
| 06 Sep | A | Santa Clara | 0 - 4 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | Sp Lisbon | 0 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Famalicao | 0 - 4 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Alverca | 1 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Sp Lisbon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | Estrela | 2 - 3 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | Guimaraes | 0 - 1 | L |
| 25 Jan 2026 | Nacional | 4 - 0 | Rio Ave |
| 17 Aug 2025 | Rio Ave | 1 - 1 | Nacional |
| 10 May 2025 | Nacional | 3 - 3 | Rio Ave |
| 29 Dec 2024 | Rio Ave | 2 - 1 | Nacional |
| 19 May 2021 | Nacional | 1 - 2 | Rio Ave |
| 05 Feb 2021 | Rio Ave | 0 - 0 | Nacional |
| 17 Mar 2019 | Nacional | 0 - 1 | Rio Ave |
| 05 Nov 2018 | Rio Ave | 3 - 3 | Nacional |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.50 | 28.6% | 11 Oct 15:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 11 Oct 15:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 11 Oct 15:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.85 | 54.0% | 11 Oct 15:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.95 | 51.3% | 11 Oct 15:30 |