| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 68.1% | 78% | -10.0% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 32.1% | 67.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 17.0% | 83.0% |
| logistic | 36.4% | 63.6% |
| Adrian Mannarino | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1775 | 1898 |
| Surface Elo | 1775 | 1898 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.14 | 1.88 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.57 | 1.38 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.13 |
| Rest days | 2 | 12 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 4 W · 0 D |
| 21 Oct | H | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Aleksandar Vukic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Aleksandar Vukic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Karen Khachanov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Karen Khachanov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | A | Adrian Mannarino | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Rei Sakamoto | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Rei Sakamoto | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Alex De Minaur | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Alex De Minaur | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Adrian Mannarino | 2 - 1 | Andrey Rublev |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Adrian Mannarino | 0 - 3 | Andrey Rublev |
| 02 Oct 2023 | Adrian Mannarino | 0 - 2 | Andrey Rublev |
| 03 Oct 2022 | Adrian Mannarino | 0 - 2 | Andrey Rublev |
| 18 Oct 2021 | Adrian Mannarino | 2 - 1 | Andrey Rublev |
| 14 Oct 2019 | Adrian Mannarino | 0 - 2 | Andrey Rublev |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.28 | 78.1% | 21 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.85 | 26.0% | 21 Oct 06:15 |