OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-10
⚽ England League Two · Saturday 10 October 2026, 11:30 UTC · finished
Swindon 0.80 0 - 1 1.40 Crewe
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 47.7%38%+9.2%✗ miss
DCHome or away 76.0%77%-1.0%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 59.5%53%+6.8%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 54.3%49%+5.6%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS no 52.9%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson43.8%26.8%29.4%
xgboost36.0%20.9%43.1%
logistic33.2%30.4%36.4%
Inputs the models saw
SwindonCrewe
Elo (pre-match)14361471
Surface Elo14361471
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.801.40
Form trend0.50-0.40
Season points per game0.331.67
Season goals for / game0.331.67
Season goals against / game1.001.00
Rest days66
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W5 W · 3 D
Swindon: last 5
03 OctARochdale0 - 1L
03 OctARochdale0 - 1L
26 SepHAccrington1 - 1D
26 SepHAccrington1 - 1D
22 SepHNewport County0 - 2L
Crewe: last 5
06 OctABlackpool2 - 2D
03 OctHBristol Rovers3 - 1W
03 OctHBristol Rvs3 - 1W
26 SepARotherham1 - 1D
26 SepARotherham1 - 1D
Head to head
21 Feb 2026Swindon1 - 2Crewe
30 Aug 2025Crewe0 - 3Swindon
11 Jan 2025Swindon0 - 0Crewe
24 Aug 2024Crewe0 - 0Swindon
13 Jan 2024Crewe2 - 1Swindon
12 Aug 2023Swindon2 - 2Crewe
29 Apr 2023Crewe2 - 1Swindon
19 Nov 2022Swindon0 - 1Crewe
20 Feb 2021Swindon2 - 1Crewe
01 Dec 2020Crewe4 - 2Swindon
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away2.6038.5%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.5028.6%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.6038.5%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.7258.1%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.0548.8%09 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:04 UTC