| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.2% | 56% | -1.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| logistic | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | Matthew William Donald | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1567 | 1553 |
| Surface Elo | 1567 | 1553 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.14 | 2.57 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.57 | 1.71 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 02 Oct | A | Enrico Dalla Valle | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Jay Clarke | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Sciahbasi, Matteo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Samuele Pieri | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Matthew William Donald | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Martin Krumich | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Lorenzo Giustino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Olle Wallin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Dimitris Sakellaridis | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 2 - 0 | Matthew William Donald |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.98 | 50.5% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.77 | 56.5% | 03 Oct 06:15 |