| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.0% | 59% | -6.8% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 78.6% | 84% | -5.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 69.6% | 77% | -7.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.2% | 49% | +10.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 54.3% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 51.4% | 25.6% | 23.0% |
| xgboost | 48.8% | 26.4% | 24.8% |
| logistic | 52.0% | 27.7% | 20.2% |
| Oldham | Cheltenham | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1409 | 1427 |
| Surface Elo | 1409 | 1427 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.70 |
| Season points per game | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.33 | 0.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 2 W · 2 D |
| 13 Oct | H | Leeds | 4 - 2 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Accrington | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Accrington | 0 - 0 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Salford | 1 - 4 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Salford | 1 - 4 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Tottenham | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Salford | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Salford | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Accrington | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Accrington | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Oldham | 2 - 1 | Cheltenham |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Cheltenham | 0 - 3 | Oldham |
| 26 Jan 2021 | Cheltenham | 2 - 0 | Oldham |
| 03 Nov 2020 | Oldham | 2 - 1 | Cheltenham |
| 04 Jan 2020 | Cheltenham | 3 - 0 | Oldham |
| 05 Oct 2019 | Oldham | 1 - 1 | Cheltenham |
| 19 Apr 2019 | Cheltenham | 0 - 0 | Oldham |
| 23 Oct 2018 | Oldham | 2 - 0 | Cheltenham |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.50 | 22.2% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.70 | 58.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |