| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 57.7% | 56% | +1.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 39.4% | 60.6% |
| logistic | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| Harold Mayot | Jesper De Jong | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1722 | 1761 |
| Surface Elo | 1722 | 1761 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.14 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.71 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.86 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Sep | A | Edas Butvilas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Justin Boulais | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Titouan Droguet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Murphy Cassone | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Andrea Guerrieri | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Remy Bertola | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Harold Mayot | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Andrea Guerrieri | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Remy Bertola | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Harold Mayot | 2 - 1 | Jesper De Jong |
| 01 Jan 2024 | Harold Mayot | 2 - 1 | Jesper De Jong |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.79 | 55.9% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.95 | 51.3% | 25 Sep 06:15 |