| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.2% | 43% | +5.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 73.5% | 80% | -6.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 62.0% | 56% | +5.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.1% | 69% | -11.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.5% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 38.4% | 28.2% | 33.5% |
| xgboost | 40.1% | 30.8% | 29.1% |
| logistic | 38.1% | 31.6% | 30.3% |
| Volendam | Vitesse | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1422 | 1426 |
| Surface Elo | 1422 | 1426 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Rest days | 145 | 873 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 2 D |
| 03 Oct | A | Almere City | 0 - 1 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Almere City | 1 - 4 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | VVV Venlo | 3 - 2 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | GVVV Veenendaal | 2 - 3 | L |
| 22 Sep | H | SV Spakenburg | 2 - 2 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | NAC Breda | 2 - 2 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Heracles | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | PSV Eindhoven | 3 - 1 | W |
| 19 May | H | Ajax | 2 - 2 | D |
| 12 May | A | Heerenveen | 3 - 1 | W |
| 18 Feb 2024 | Vitesse | 1 - 1 | Volendam |
| 11 Aug 2023 | Volendam | 1 - 2 | Vitesse |
| 18 Feb 2023 | Volendam | 2 - 0 | Vitesse |
| 17 Sep 2022 | Vitesse | 1 - 1 | Volendam |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.65 | 37.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.35 | 42.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.42 | 70.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.80 | 35.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |