| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.1% | 54% | -5.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.2% | 77% | -2.2% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 62.9% | 72% | -9.1% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.7% | 55% | +1.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 46.8% | 26.4% | 26.8% |
| xgboost | 44.1% | 27.7% | 28.2% |
| logistic | 45.1% | 27.6% | 27.3% |
| Sheffield Utd | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1543 | 1472 |
| Surface Elo | 1543 | 1472 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 0.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 6 W | 3 W · 1 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Bristol City | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Bristol City | 1 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | A | Portsmouth | 2 - 3 | L |
| 14 Oct | A | Portsmouth | 2 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Lincoln | 3 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Stoke | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Stoke | 0 - 1 | L |
| 14 Oct | A | QPR | 1 - 4 | L |
| 14 Oct | A | QPR | 1 - 4 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Scunthorpe | 2 - 2 | D |
| 02 May 2026 | Derby | 1 - 2 | Sheffield Utd |
| 01 Nov 2025 | Sheffield Utd | 1 - 3 | Derby |
| 01 Feb 2025 | Derby | 0 - 1 | Sheffield Utd |
| 21 Sep 2024 | Sheffield Utd | 1 - 0 | Derby |
| 15 Jan 2022 | Derby | 2 - 0 | Sheffield Utd |
| 25 Sep 2021 | Sheffield Utd | 1 - 0 | Derby |
| 26 Dec 2018 | Sheffield Utd | 3 - 1 | Derby |
| 20 Oct 2018 | Derby | 2 - 1 | Sheffield Utd |
| 01 Jan 2018 | Derby | 1 - 1 | Sheffield Utd |
| 26 Aug 2017 | Sheffield Utd | 3 - 1 | Derby |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.26 | 23.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.82 | 26.2% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.88 | 53.2% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.84 | 54.4% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |