| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 56.5% | 71% | -14.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 41.0% | 59.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| logistic | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | Rafael Jodar | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1890 | 1983 |
| Surface Elo | 1890 | 1983 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Rafael Jodar | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Hamad Medjedovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Hamad Medjedovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Jan Lennard Struff | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Rodrigo Alujas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Thiago Agustin Tirante | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Sep | H | Yunchaokete Bu | 0 - 3 | L |
| 19 Aug | A | Flavio Cobolli | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Rafael Jodar | 2 - 1 | Thiago Agustin Tirante |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.40 | 71.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.10 | 32.3% | 09 Oct 06:15 |