| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 76.1% | 50% | +25.7% | |
| DC | Home or draw | 94.1% | 80% | +14.4% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 93.0% | 68% | +24.6% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.9% | 58% | -0.4% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 58.7% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 89.4% | 7.8% | 2.8% |
| xgboost | 68.9% | 19.1% | 12.0% |
| logistic | 89.2% | 9.7% | 1.1% |
| Real Madrid | Cartagena | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1877 | 1284 |
| Surface Elo | 1877 | 1284 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.40 | 1.67 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.80 | 1.17 |
| Rest days | 5 | 517 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 25 Oct | A | Barcelona | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Barcelona | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | CF Algeciras | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Oct | H | UB Conquense | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | H | RB Leipzig | 4 - 1 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Deportivo Maritimo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 25 Oct | A | Villarreal CF B | 1 - 4 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | CE Europa | 3 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Antequera CF | 1 - 1 | D |
| 07 Oct | H | Real Murcia CF | 1 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.25 | 30.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.97 | 50.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.70 | 58.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 30 Oct 06:15 |