| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.1% | 79% | -16.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 85.2% | 92% | -7.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 79.4% | 91% | -11.2% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.2% | 85% | -10.8% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 65.3% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 79.0% | 12.3% | 8.7% |
| xgboost | 57.8% | 22.5% | 19.7% |
| logistic | 77.5% | 15.4% | 7.1% |
| PSV Eindhoven | Heerenveen | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1841 | 1574 |
| Surface Elo | 1841 | 1574 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 19 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 7 W | 1 W · 2 D |
| 03 Oct | H | Graafschap | 2 - 2 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | NAC Breda | 2 - 4 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Twente | 2 - 3 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Twente | 2 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Vitesse | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Sparta Rotterdam | 4 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Sparta Rotterdam | 4 - 0 | W |
| 13 Sep | H | Telstar | 0 - 0 | D |
| 06 Sep | H | AZ Alkmaar | 2 - 3 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Willem II | 2 - 2 | D |
| 21 Feb 2026 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 - 1 | Heerenveen |
| 06 Dec 2025 | Heerenveen | 0 - 2 | PSV Eindhoven |
| 08 Mar 2025 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 - 1 | Heerenveen |
| 14 Dec 2024 | Heerenveen | 1 - 0 | PSV Eindhoven |
| 25 Apr 2024 | Heerenveen | 0 - 8 | PSV Eindhoven |
| 07 Dec 2023 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 - 0 | Heerenveen |
| 21 May 2023 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 - 3 | Heerenveen |
| 09 Oct 2022 | Heerenveen | 0 - 1 | PSV Eindhoven |
| 20 Feb 2022 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 - 1 | Heerenveen |
| 28 Nov 2021 | Heerenveen | 1 - 1 | PSV Eindhoven |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 8.36 | 12.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 7.20 | 13.9% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.30 | 76.9% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.20 | 83.3% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 4.90 | 20.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |