| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 55.2% | 25% | +30.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 79.2% | 82% | -2.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 69.7% | 33% | +36.9% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.6% | 67% | -4.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.3% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 33.0% | 24.2% | 42.8% |
| xgboost | 26.4% | 27.4% | 46.2% |
| logistic | 11.5% | 10.6% | 77.9% |
| Duisburg | Hoffenheim | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1403 | 1632 |
| Surface Elo | 1403 | 1632 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 2701 | 19 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Sep | A | SV Wehen Wiesbaden | 4 - 1 | W |
| 19 May | A | Hamburg | 0 - 3 | L |
| 12 May | H | Heidenheim | 3 - 4 | L |
| 05 May | A | Holstein Kiel | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Apr | H | Bielefeld | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Hamburg | 2 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Hamburg | 2 - 3 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Paderborn | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | SV Meppen 1912 | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Stuttgart | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.90 | 25.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.79 | 55.9% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.49 | 67.1% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.55 | 39.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |