| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.6% | 79% | -15.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 70.9% | 29.0% |
| logistic | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez | Thiago Cigarran | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1416 | 1367 |
| Surface Elo | 1416 | 1367 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.17 | 0.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 7 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | A | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Franco Ribero | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Barrios Vera, Marcelo Tomas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Wilson Leite | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Tomas Barrios Vera | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Nicolas Kicker | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Miguel Tobon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Nicolas Kicker | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Miguel Tobon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Anders Matta | 1 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.55 | 28.2% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.27 | 78.7% | 12 Oct 06:15 |