OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-10
⚽ England Premier League · Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Chelsea 1.40 5 - 1 0.60 Bournemouth
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 49.4%58%-8.4%✓ hit
DCHome or away 75.6%79%-3.9%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 62.5%75%-12.0%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 55.9%67%-11.2%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 56.6%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson47.7%24.3%27.9%
xgboost39.3%28.4%32.3%
logistic38.0%26.9%35.1%
Inputs the models saw
ChelseaBournemouth
Elo (pre-match)17091755
Surface Elo17091755
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.400.60
Form trend0.800.00
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days2120
Head-to-head (last 10)4 W1 W · 5 D
Chelsea: last 5
18 SepABrentford0 - 3L
12 SepHHull2 - 2D
06 SepAArsenal1 - 2L
30 AugHBrighton4 - 3W
24 AugAFulham3 - 2W
Bournemouth: last 5
20 SepHLiverpool0 - 1L
12 SepHBrentford2 - 2D
05 SepANewcastle2 - 2D
29 AugHEverton1 - 1D
23 AugAManchester City1 - 2L
Head to head
30 Dec 2025Chelsea2 - 2Bournemouth
06 Dec 2025Bournemouth0 - 0Chelsea
14 Jan 2025Chelsea2 - 2Bournemouth
14 Sep 2024Bournemouth0 - 1Chelsea
19 May 2024Chelsea2 - 1Bournemouth
17 Sep 2023Bournemouth0 - 0Chelsea
06 May 2023Bournemouth1 - 3Chelsea
27 Dec 2022Chelsea2 - 0Bournemouth
29 Feb 2020Bournemouth2 - 2Chelsea
14 Dec 2019Chelsea0 - 1Bournemouth
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away4.6321.6%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.4022.7%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.7357.8%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.4967.1%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.7037.0%09 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:07 UTC