| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.3% | 49% | +1.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 77.5% | 77% | +0.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 65.0% | 66% | -1.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.2% | 61% | +2.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 62.5% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 59.9% | 18.9% | 21.2% |
| xgboost | 44.6% | 25.8% | 29.6% |
| logistic | 42.1% | 28.3% | 29.6% |
| Osasuna | Santander | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1557 | 1586 |
| Surface Elo | 1557 | 1586 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.63 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.25 | 2.88 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | H | UE Olot | 0 - 0 | D |
| 11 Oct | A | Betis | 2 - 5 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Betis | 2 - 5 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | CE Manresa | 0 - 0 | D |
| 04 Oct | H | CF Calamocha | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Valencia | 2 - 2 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | Valencia | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Celta | 0 - 5 | L |
| 16 Sep | A | Barcelona | 2 - 7 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Alaves | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.60 | 27.8% | 18 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 18 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.95 | 51.3% | 18 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 18 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 18 Oct 13:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.56 | 28.1% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.83 | 26.1% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.09 | 47.9% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.64 | 61.0% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.35 | 42.5% | 18 Oct 06:15 |