| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.6% | 79% | -17.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 84.5% | 95% | -10.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 78.5% | 93% | -14.8% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.8% | 73% | -14.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 68.2% | 18.4% | 13.4% |
| xgboost | 75.3% | 11.5% | 13.2% |
| logistic | 67.7% | 20.6% | 11.7% |
| Castellon | Ceuta | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1622 | 1450 |
| Surface Elo | 1622 | 1450 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.70 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 5 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 2 D |
| 03 Oct | H | CF Lorca Deportiva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Leganes | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Leganes | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Orihuela CF | 4 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Valencia | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Dos Hermanas CF 1971 | 0 - 5 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Sociedad B | 3 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Sociedad | 3 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Valladolid | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | Valladolid | 1 - 1 | D |
| 09 May 2026 | Ceuta | 1 - 1 | Castellon |
| 14 Sep 2025 | Castellon | 3 - 3 | Ceuta |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 9.40 | 10.6% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 6.30 | 15.9% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.26 | 79.4% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.37 | 73.0% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.95 | 33.9% | 02 Oct 06:15 |