| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 57.8% | 75% | -17.2% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 45.1% | 54.8% |
| logistic | 38.1% | 61.9% |
| Naoya Honda | Nikoloz Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1459 | 1599 |
| Surface Elo | 1459 | 1599 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 121 | 51 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 14 Sep | H | Petr Bar Biryukov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 May | A | Alex Hernandez | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 May | H | Nitin Kumar Sinha | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Mar | A | Blake Ellis | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Naoya Honda | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Jul | A | Mili Poljicak | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Jul | A | Michael Vrbensky | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Jul | H | Tiago Torres | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Jul | H | Thiago Agustin Tirante | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Naoya Honda | 2 - 1 | Nikoloz Basilashvili |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.38 | 72.5% | 16 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.90 | 34.5% | 16 Sep 06:15 |