OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-14

🎾 tennis_atp_shanghai_masters · Wednesday 14 October 2026, 11:10 UTC · scheduled

Tommy Paul 1.20 11:10 1.80 Zizou Bergs

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	70.4%	68%	+1.9%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	71.8%	28.1%
logistic	64.1%	35.9%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Tommy Paul	Zizou Bergs
Elo (pre-match)	1986	1844
Surface Elo	1986	1844
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.20	1.80
Form trend	-0.90	-0.90
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	2	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	1 W	0 W · 0 D

Tommy Paul: last 5

14 Oct	H	Zizou Bergs	2 - 0	W
12 Oct	H	Valentin Vacherot	2 - 0	W
12 Oct	H	Valentin Vacherot	2 - 0	W
10 Oct	H	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2 - 0	W
10 Oct	A	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2 - 0	W

Zizou Bergs: last 5

14 Oct	A	Tommy Paul	0 - 2	L
12 Oct	H	Carlos Alcaraz	2 - 0	W
12 Oct	A	Carlos Alcaraz	2 - 0	W
10 Oct	A	Ignacio Buse	2 - 0	W
10 Oct	A	Ignacio Buse	2 - 0	W

Head to head

14 Oct 2026	Tommy Paul	2 - 0	Zizou Bergs
07 Mar 2026	Tommy Paul	2 - 0	Zizou Bergs

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.46	68.5%	14 Oct 06:02
1xBet	h2h	Zizou Bergs	2.80	35.7%	14 Oct 06:02
888sport	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.44	69.4%	14 Oct 06:02
888sport	h2h	Zizou Bergs	2.75	36.4%	14 Oct 06:02
BetAnything	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.45	69.0%	14 Oct 06:02
BetAnything	h2h	Zizou Bergs	2.80	35.7%	14 Oct 06:02
Betfair sharp	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.51	66.2%	14 Oct 06:02
Betfair sharp	h2h	Zizou Bergs	2.94	34.0%	14 Oct 06:02
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Tommy Paul	1.52	65.8%	14 Oct 06:02
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Zizou Bergs	2.96	33.8%	14 Oct 06:02
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.45	69.0%	14 Oct 06:02
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Zizou Bergs	2.84	35.2%	14 Oct 06:02
Betsson	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.45	69.0%	14 Oct 06:02
Betsson	h2h	Zizou Bergs	2.80	35.7%	14 Oct 06:02
Coolbet	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.45	69.0%	14 Oct 06:02
Coolbet	h2h	Zizou Bergs	2.78	36.0%	14 Oct 06:02
GTbets	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.47	68.0%	14 Oct 06:02
GTbets	h2h	Zizou Bergs	2.70	37.0%	14 Oct 06:02
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.45	69.0%	14 Oct 06:02
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Zizou Bergs	2.75	36.4%	14 Oct 06:02
Marathon Bet	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.44	69.4%	14 Oct 06:02
Marathon Bet	h2h	Zizou Bergs	2.76	36.2%	14 Oct 06:02
Matchbook	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.51	66.2%	14 Oct 06:02
Matchbook	h2h	Zizou Bergs	2.94	34.0%	14 Oct 06:02
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Tommy Paul	1.52	65.8%	14 Oct 06:02
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Zizou Bergs	2.96	33.8%	14 Oct 06:02
Nordic Bet	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.45	69.0%	14 Oct 06:02
Nordic Bet	h2h	Zizou Bergs	2.80	35.7%	14 Oct 06:02
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.47	68.0%	14 Oct 06:02
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Zizou Bergs	2.90	34.5%	14 Oct 06:02
PMU (FR)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.40	71.4%	14 Oct 06:02
PMU (FR)	h2h	Zizou Bergs	2.60	38.5%	14 Oct 06:02
SportyBet	1X2	away	2.80	35.7%	14 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.46	68.5%	14 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.40	71.4%	14 Oct 06:02
Tipico	h2h	Zizou Bergs	2.70	37.0%	14 Oct 06:02
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.38	72.5%	14 Oct 06:02
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Zizou Bergs	2.75	36.4%	14 Oct 06:02
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.45	69.0%	14 Oct 06:02
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Zizou Bergs	2.75	36.4%	14 Oct 06:02
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.45	69.0%	14 Oct 06:02
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Zizou Bergs	2.75	36.4%	14 Oct 06:02
William Hill	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.44	69.4%	14 Oct 06:02
William Hill	h2h	Zizou Bergs	2.75	36.4%	14 Oct 06:02
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.47	68.0%	14 Oct 06:02
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Zizou Bergs	2.85	35.1%	14 Oct 06:02
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.44	69.4%	14 Oct 06:02
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Zizou Bergs	2.75	36.4%	14 Oct 06:02

Generated 2026-10-30 15:55 UTC