| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 72.9% | 77% | -4.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 73.3% | 26.7% |
| logistic | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| Jacob Fearnley | Maxim Mrva | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1762 | 1626 |
| Surface Elo | 1762 | 1626 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.33 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 15 Oct | H | Jan Kumstat | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | George Loffhagen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Damir Dzumhur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Luca Nardi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Maxim Mrva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Francesco Maestrelli | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Hynek Barton | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Jacob Fearnley | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Francesco Maestrelli | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Hynek Barton | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Jacob Fearnley | 2 - 0 | Maxim Mrva |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.30 | 30.3% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.30 | 76.9% | 16 Oct 06:15 |