| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 53.7% | 36% | +18.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 48.0% | 51.9% |
| logistic | 43.7% | 56.3% |
| Alex Marti Pujolras | Filippo Moroni | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1400 | 1479 |
| Surface Elo | 1400 | 1479 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 9 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Sep | A | Ignacio Parisca | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Stefano Napolitano | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Dimitar Kuzmanov | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Gerard Campana Lee | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Jul | H | Oliver Crawford | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Fabrizio Andaloro | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Gianmarco Ferrari | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Nov | H | Lorenzo Giustino | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Sep | A | Billy Harris | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Aug | H | Robin Bertrand | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.80 | 35.7% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.41 | 70.9% | 04 Oct 06:15 |