| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 58.3% | 21% | +36.9% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 82.4% | 44% | +38.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 74.6% | 27% | +47.3% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.3% | 70% | -27.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 45.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 17.8% | 24.5% | 57.8% |
| xgboost | 27.3% | 29.6% | 43.2% |
| logistic | 25.0% | 29.1% | 45.9% |
| Burton | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1471 | 1687 |
| Surface Elo | 1471 | 1687 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 19 Sep | H | Mansfield | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Mansfield | 2 - 2 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Oxford | 0 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Cambridge | 2 - 2 | D |
| 02 Sep | H | AFC Wimbledon | 4 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Coventry | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Aston Villa | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Tottenham | 0 - 0 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | Liverpool | 2 - 2 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | Leeds | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Feb 2018 | Burton | 0 - 0 | Nottingham Forest |
| 21 Oct 2017 | Nottingham Forest | 2 - 0 | Burton |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.00 | 20.0% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.60 | 21.7% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.54 | 64.9% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.43 | 69.9% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.80 | 35.7% | 22 Sep 06:15 |