| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 77.7% | 85% | -7.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 71.5% | 28.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 82.7% | 17.2% |
| logistic | 66.6% | 33.4% |
| Adam Walton | Beibit Zhukayev | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1678 | 1483 |
| Surface Elo | 1678 | 1483 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 4 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Marin Cilic | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Marin Cilic | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Rigele Te | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Mattia Bellucci | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Moise Kouame | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Ilya Ivashka | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Yaroslav Demin | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Aug | H | Mert Alkaya | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Aug | A | Amir Omarkhanov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Apr | H | Dinko Dinev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Apr 2024 | Adam Walton | 2 - 1 | Beibit Zhukayev |
| 08 Apr 2024 | Adam Walton | 2 - 1 | Beibit Zhukayev |
| 07 Aug 2023 | Adam Walton | 2 - 0 | Beibit Zhukayev |
| 29 May 2023 | Adam Walton | 1 - 2 | Beibit Zhukayev |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.15 | 24.1% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.18 | 84.8% | 17 Oct 06:15 |