OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-04
⚽ Spain Primera Federacion · Sunday 04 October 2026, 14:30 UTC · finished
Ponferradina 1.60 1 - 0 0.80 Mirandes
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 48.1%39%+8.9%✓ hit
DCHome or away 76.1%78%-2.3%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 60.0%55%+4.7%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 56.0%61%-4.7%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS no 53.8%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson44.5%27.2%28.3%
xgboost37.2%27.6%35.1%
logistic34.0%22.5%43.5%
Inputs the models saw
PonferradinaMirandes
Elo (pre-match)14421410
Surface Elo14421410
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.600.80
Form trend-0.40-0.30
Season points per game2.002.00
Season goals for / game1.001.50
Season goals against / game0.501.00
Rest days1224125
Head-to-head (last 10)5 W2 W · 1 D
Ponferradina: last 5
27 SepAPontevedra CF1 - 1D
19 SepHMerida AD1 - 0W
28 MayASp Gijon4 - 1W
20 MayHAlbacete1 - 1D
14 MayAHuesca1 - 1D
Mirandes: last 5
27 SepHUnionistas de Salamanca CF1 - 0W
19 SepAReal Union de Irun2 - 2D
31 MayALeganes0 - 1L
24 MayHGranada3 - 1W
16 MayASociedad B2 - 2D
Head to head
26 Mar 2023Ponferradina0 - 0Mirandes
17 Dec 2022Mirandes2 - 1Ponferradina
27 Mar 2022Mirandes3 - 1Ponferradina
05 Dec 2021Ponferradina2 - 1Mirandes
19 Feb 2021Ponferradina1 - 0Mirandes
03 Oct 2020Mirandes0 - 1Ponferradina
21 Jun 2020Mirandes1 - 2Ponferradina
05 Oct 2019Ponferradina2 - 0Mirandes
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away2.5539.2%04 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.1032.3%04 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.5539.2%04 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over2.0548.8%04 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.6560.6%04 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:09 UTC