| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 68.0% | 81% | -13.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 36.8% | 63.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 16.4% | 83.5% |
| logistic | 35.8% | 64.2% |
| Andrej Martin | Alejandro Moro Canas | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1512 | 1677 |
| Surface Elo | 1512 | 1677 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | A | Louis Wessels | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Alejandro Moro Canas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Louis Wessels | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Samuele Pieri | 0 - 1 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Samuele Pieri | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Kalin Ivanovski | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Jonas Forejtek | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Massimo Giunta | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Andrej Martin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Kalin Ivanovski | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Alejandro Moro Canas | 2 - 0 | Andrej Martin |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.23 | 81.3% | 07 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.90 | 25.6% | 07 Oct 06:15 |