| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.4% | 36% | +25.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 83.6% | 65% | +18.1% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 73.7% | 51% | +23.2% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 46.7% | 52% | -5.1% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 41.6% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 41.1% | 26.8% | 32.1% |
| xgboost | 40.1% | 31.4% | 28.5% |
| logistic | 46.5% | 28.6% | 25.0% |
| Valencia | Sociedad | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1623 | 1599 |
| Surface Elo | 1623 | 1599 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.67 | 1.83 |
| Rest days | 5 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 3 W · 4 D |
| 19 Sep | H | Castellon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Sep | A | Alaves | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Sep | A | Sevilla | 0 - 1 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | Barcelona | 0 - 5 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | La Coruna | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Pasaia KE | 2 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Mallorca | 0 - 1 | L |
| 13 Sep | H | Atlético Madrid | 0 - 3 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Elche | 3 - 2 | W |
| 03 Sep | H | Celta | 0 - 0 | D |
| 17 May 2026 | Sociedad | 3 - 4 | Valencia |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Valencia | 1 - 1 | Sociedad |
| 19 Jan 2025 | Valencia | 1 - 0 | Sociedad |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Sociedad | 3 - 0 | Valencia |
| 16 May 2024 | Sociedad | 1 - 0 | Valencia |
| 27 Sep 2023 | Valencia | 0 - 1 | Sociedad |
| 25 Feb 2023 | Valencia | 1 - 0 | Sociedad |
| 06 Nov 2022 | Sociedad | 1 - 1 | Valencia |
| 06 Feb 2022 | Valencia | 0 - 0 | Sociedad |
| 21 Nov 2021 | Sociedad | 0 - 0 | Valencia |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.38 | 42.0% | 20 Sep 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 20 Sep 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.00 | 33.3% | 20 Sep 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.91 | 52.4% | 20 Sep 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.91 | 52.4% | 20 Sep 20:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.64 | 37.9% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.47 | 28.8% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.83 | 35.3% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.91 | 52.4% | 20 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.93 | 51.8% | 20 Sep 06:16 |