| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 53.5% | 69% | -15.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 62.6% | 37.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 28.1% | 71.8% |
| logistic | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| Facundo Diaz Acosta | Nikoloz Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1720 | 1716 |
| Surface Elo | 1720 | 1716 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.57 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.86 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.29 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Oct | H | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Thiago Agustin Tirante | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Thiago Agustin Tirante | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Shintaro Mochizuki | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Shintaro Mochizuki | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | A | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Marin Cilic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Marin Cilic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Taro Daniel | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Adrian Mannarino | 0 - 1 | L |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 0 - 2 | Nikoloz Basilashvili |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.43 | 69.9% | 21 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.95 | 33.9% | 21 Oct 06:15 |