| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 67.0% | 69% | -2.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 38.9% | 61.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 22.3% | 77.6% |
| logistic | 44.4% | 55.6% |
| Duncan Chan | Colton Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1521 | 1619 |
| Surface Elo | 1521 | 1619 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | H | Hance, Keaton | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Colton Smith | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Taro Daniel | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Aug | H | Thiago Agustin Tirante | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Jul | A | Dane Sweeny | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Aidan Mayo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Duncan Chan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Timo Legout | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Stefan Kozlov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Timo Legout | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Colton Smith | 2 - 0 | Duncan Chan |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.44 | 69.4% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.65 | 37.7% | 29 Sep 06:15 |