| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 45.0% | 35% | +9.9% | |
| DC | Home or away | 76.2% | 76% | -0.1% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 56.9% | 48% | +9.1% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.4% | 49% | +8.6% | |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 54.6% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 42.5% | 27.0% | 30.5% |
| xgboost | 38.5% | 21.4% | 40.0% |
| logistic | 42.6% | 28.4% | 28.9% |
| Bolton | Bristol City | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1547 | 1514 |
| Surface Elo | 1547 | 1514 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.80 | 0.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.20 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 1 D |
| 23 Oct | H | Middlesbrough | 1 - 5 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | Middlesbrough | 1 - 5 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Southampton | 0 - 0 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Southampton | 0 - 0 | D |
| 13 Oct | A | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Stoke | 0 - 0 | D |
| 24 Oct | A | Stoke | 0 - 0 | D |
| 21 Oct | A | Norwich | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Sheffield Utd | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Sheffield Utd | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Jan 2019 | Bristol City | 2 - 1 | Bolton |
| 11 Aug 2018 | Bolton | 2 - 2 | Bristol City |
| 02 Feb 2018 | Bolton | 1 - 0 | Bristol City |
| 26 Sep 2017 | Bristol City | 2 - 0 | Bolton |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.65 | 27.4% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.88 | 34.7% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.81 | 55.2% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |