| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.8% | 63% | -7.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 55.2% | 44.7% |
| logistic | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| Francesco Maestrelli | Johannus Monday | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1629 | 1628 |
| Surface Elo | 1629 | 1628 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.71 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.21 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.93 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Nov | H | Jack Loge | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Nov | H | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Nov | H | Peter Makk | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Nov | H | Francesco Forti | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Oct | A | Moise Kouame | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Nov | H | Georgii Kravchenko | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Oct | A | Maximilian Marterer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | A | Massard, L | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Aug | H | Michele Ribecai | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | Lui Maxted | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 11 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.59 | 62.9% | 11 Nov 06:15 |