| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.6% | 35% | +24.5% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 86.1% | 66% | +20.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 81.9% | 49% | +32.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 46.8% | 61% | -14.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 58.8% | 25.7% | 15.5% |
| xgboost | 69.2% | 20.1% | 10.7% |
| logistic | 68.0% | 20.7% | 11.3% |
| Paris FC | Bastia | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1716 | 1396 |
| Surface Elo | 1716 | 1396 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 139 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 3 W · 1 D |
| 19 Sep | H | Strasbourg | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Bourg Peronnas | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Lyon | 0 - 0 | D |
| 06 Sep | A | Marseille | 3 - 2 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Nice | 3 - 0 | W |
| 09 May | H | Le Mans | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 May | A | Guingamp | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Apr | A | Clermont | 1 - 1 | D |
| 18 Apr | H | St Etienne | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Apr | A | Red Star | 3 - 4 | L |
| 19 Apr 2025 | Paris FC | 1 - 0 | Bastia |
| 20 Sep 2024 | Bastia | 2 - 1 | Paris FC |
| 17 May 2024 | Bastia | 1 - 1 | Paris FC |
| 11 Nov 2023 | Paris FC | 1 - 0 | Bastia |
| 18 Mar 2023 | Paris FC | 0 - 1 | Bastia |
| 05 Nov 2022 | Bastia | 0 - 1 | Paris FC |
| 22 Apr 2022 | Bastia | 2 - 1 | Paris FC |
| 03 Dec 2021 | Paris FC | 1 - 0 | Bastia |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.85 | 35.1% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.20 | 45.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.64 | 61.0% | 26 Sep 06:15 |