| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 51.2% | 52% | -0.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 75.6% | 81% | -5.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 66.0% | 72% | -6.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 49.5% | 61% | -11.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 27.2% | 31.3% | 41.4% |
| xgboost | 28.7% | 22.5% | 48.7% |
| logistic | 23.9% | 28.1% | 47.9% |
| Casa Pia | Santa Clara | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1438 | 1582 |
| Surface Elo | 1438 | 1582 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 20 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 3 W · 2 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Santa Clara | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Estoril | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Estoril | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Porto | 1 - 4 | L |
| 06 Sep | A | Guimaraes | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Casa Pia | 1 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Real SC Queluz | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | Sp Braga | 0 - 0 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | Sp Braga | 0 - 0 | D |
| 13 Sep | A | Arouca | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Casa Pia | 0 - 1 | Santa Clara |
| 18 Apr 2026 | Casa Pia | 0 - 0 | Santa Clara |
| 06 Dec 2025 | Santa Clara | 1 - 0 | Casa Pia |
| 01 Feb 2025 | Santa Clara | 2 - 1 | Casa Pia |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Casa Pia | 0 - 2 | Santa Clara |
| 29 Jan 2023 | Casa Pia | 2 - 1 | Santa Clara |
| 07 Aug 2022 | Santa Clara | 0 - 0 | Casa Pia |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.94 | 51.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.42 | 29.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.50 | 22.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.25 | 44.4% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.69 | 59.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |