OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-13

🎾 ATP Challenger Maia, Portugal Men Singles · Tuesday 13 October 2026, 15:10 UTC · finished

Marco Trungelliti 1.80 2 - 1 0.00 Thiago Monteiro

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	57.9%	61%	-3.3%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
markov	52.1%	47.9%
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	51.0%	49.0%
logistic	63.1%	36.9%

Inputs the models saw

	Marco Trungelliti	Thiago Monteiro
Elo (pre-match)	1716	1624
Surface Elo	1716	1624
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.80	0.00
Form trend	0.90	0.00
Season points per game	2.25	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.75	1.50
Season goals against / game	0.75	1.33
Rest days	6	8
Head-to-head (last 10)	2 W	3 W · 0 D

Marco Trungelliti: last 5

12 Oct	A	Francesco Passaro	1 - 2	L
12 Oct	H	Milos Karol	2 - 0	W
12 Oct	H	Thiago Monteiro	2 - 1	W
07 Oct	H	Rei Sakamoto	0 - 2	L
07 Oct	H	Rei Sakamoto	0 - 2	L

Thiago Monteiro: last 5

12 Oct	A	Marco Trungelliti	1 - 2	L
05 Oct	H	Elmer Moller	1 - 2	L
05 Oct	A	Elmer Moller	1 - 2	L
22 Sep	A	Mika Petkovic	1 - 2	L
21 Sep	A	Mika Petkovic	1 - 2	L

Head to head

12 Oct 2026	Marco Trungelliti	2 - 1	Thiago Monteiro
19 Sep 2026	Thiago Monteiro	2 - 1	Marco Trungelliti
14 Sep 2026	Marco Trungelliti	1 - 2	Thiago Monteiro
10 Jul 2023	Marco Trungelliti	1 - 2	Thiago Monteiro
11 Apr 2022	Marco Trungelliti	2 - 0	Thiago Monteiro
13 Sep 2021	Marco Trungelliti	2 - 0	Thiago Monteiro

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
SportyBet	1X2	away	2.15	46.5%	13 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.66	60.2%	13 Oct 06:15

Generated 2026-10-30 15:54 UTC