| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 50.6% | 15% | +35.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 76.3% | 34% | +42.8% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 66.3% | 18% | +48.4% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.8% | 75% | -3.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 63.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 18.7% | 22.6% | 58.8% |
| xgboost | 36.3% | 26.2% | 37.5% |
| logistic | 21.4% | 27.7% | 50.8% |
| Blackpool | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1477 | 1777 |
| Surface Elo | 1477 | 1777 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.50 | 4.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | H | Mansfield | 1 - 4 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Mansfield | 1 - 4 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Milton Keynes Dons | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Milton Keynes Dons | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Leyton Orient | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Manchester City | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Manchester City | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Viking FK | 3 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Newcastle | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Newcastle | 1 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 7.10 | 14.1% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.60 | 17.9% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.33 | 75.2% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.34 | 74.6% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.20 | 31.2% | 27 Oct 06:15 |