| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.7% | 56% | -0.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 78.8% | 79% | -0.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 71.1% | 72% | -1.0% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.1% | 71% | -10.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 58.9% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 54.9% | 23.4% | 21.7% |
| xgboost | 54.7% | 21.6% | 23.7% |
| logistic | 60.6% | 20.7% | 18.8% |
| Feyenoord | AZ Alkmaar | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1731 | 1665 |
| Surface Elo | 1731 | 1665 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 2.43 | 2.71 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.57 | 2.57 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.86 |
| Rest days | 20 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 7 W | 1 W · 2 D |
| 20 Sep | H | Utrecht | 5 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Utrecht | 5 - 0 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Zwolle | 7 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Nijmegen | 3 - 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Den Haag | 2 - 2 | D |
| 09 Oct | H | FC Den Bosch | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Telstar | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Telstar | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Sep | H | Willem II | 1 - 1 | D |
| 06 Sep | A | Heerenveen | 3 - 2 | W |
| 10 May 2026 | Feyenoord | 1 - 1 | AZ Alkmaar |
| 21 Sep 2025 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 - 3 | Feyenoord |
| 05 Apr 2025 | AZ Alkmaar | 0 - 1 | Feyenoord |
| 02 Nov 2024 | Feyenoord | 3 - 2 | AZ Alkmaar |
| 04 Feb 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | 0 - 1 | Feyenoord |
| 12 Nov 2023 | Feyenoord | 1 - 0 | AZ Alkmaar |
| 18 Feb 2023 | Feyenoord | 2 - 1 | AZ Alkmaar |
| 16 Oct 2022 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 - 3 | Feyenoord |
| 27 Feb 2022 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 - 1 | Feyenoord |
| 07 Nov 2021 | Feyenoord | 1 - 0 | AZ Alkmaar |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.20 | 23.8% | 10 Oct 17:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.10 | 24.4% | 10 Oct 17:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.75 | 57.1% | 10 Oct 17:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.40 | 71.4% | 10 Oct 17:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.88 | 34.7% | 10 Oct 17:45 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.24 | 23.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.32 | 23.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.78 | 56.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.43 | 69.9% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.90 | 34.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |