| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.2% | 43% | +7.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 47.4% | 52.5% |
| logistic | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| Lucas Poullain | Joel Schwaerzler | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1594 | 1598 |
| Surface Elo | 1594 | 1598 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 30 Sep | H | Remy Bertola | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Mark Lajal | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Joel Schwaerzler | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Remy Bertola | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Mark Lajal | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Harry Wendelken | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Alberto Barroso Campos | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Lucas Poullain | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Harry Wendelken | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Joel Schwaerzler | 2 - 0 | Lucas Poullain |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.58 | 63.3% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.30 | 43.5% | 02 Oct 06:15 |