| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 75.4% | 74% | +1.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 34.6% | 65.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 14.1% | 85.9% |
| logistic | 39.6% | 60.4% |
| Andrea Guerrieri | Jesper De Jong | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1644 | 1749 |
| Surface Elo | 1644 | 1749 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | H | Francesco Maestrelli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Jesper De Jong | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Francesco Maestrelli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Sep | A | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 3 | L |
| 03 Aug | H | Joel Schwaerzler | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Remy Bertola | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Harold Mayot | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Andrea Guerrieri | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Remy Bertola | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Sep | H | Zizou Bergs | 1 - 3 | L |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Andrea Guerrieri | 1 - 2 | Jesper De Jong |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.40 | 71.4% | 24 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.80 | 35.7% | 24 Sep 06:15 |