| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 53.1% | 54% | -1.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 44.9% | 55.0% |
| logistic | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| Alastair Gray | Li Tu | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1480 | 1548 |
| Surface Elo | 1480 | 1548 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 31 | 16 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 14 Sep | H | Patrick Maloney | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | George Loffhagen | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | Adrian Boitan | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Emile Hudd | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Jul | A | Akira Santillan | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Abdullah Shelbayh | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | James Trotter | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Abdullah Shelbayh | 1 - 2 | L |
| 25 May | H | Lukas Neumayer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 May | H | Tommaso Compagnucci | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Apr 2026 | Alastair Gray | 0 - 2 | Li Tu |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.84 | 54.4% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.86 | 53.8% | 15 Oct 06:15 |