OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-17

🎾 tennis_atp_shanghai_masters · Saturday 17 October 2026, 11:00 UTC · scheduled

Rafael Jodar 2.40 11:00 2.40 Daniil Medvedev

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	54.5%	67%	-12.2%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	47.9%	52.0%
logistic	45.1%	54.9%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Rafael Jodar	Daniil Medvedev
Elo (pre-match)	2014	2086
Surface Elo	2014	2086
Form, last 5 (PPG)	2.40	2.40
Form trend	-0.60	-0.60
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	1	1
Head-to-head (last 10)	0 W	0 W · 0 D

Rafael Jodar: last 5

17 Oct	A	Daniil Medvedev	2 - 0	W
16 Oct	H	Casper Ruud	2 - 1	W
16 Oct	A	Casper Ruud	2 - 1	W
14 Oct	A	Botic Van De Zandschulp	2 - 1	W
14 Oct	A	Botic Van De Zandschulp	2 - 1	W

Daniil Medvedev: last 5

17 Oct	H	Rafael Jodar	0 - 2	L
16 Oct	H	Tommy Paul	2 - 1	W
16 Oct	H	Tommy Paul	2 - 1	W
14 Oct	H	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2 - 0	W
14 Oct	H	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2 - 0	W

Head to head

17 Oct 2026

Daniil Medvedev

0 - 2

Rafael Jodar

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.51	66.2%	17 Oct 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Rafael Jodar	2.63	38.0%	17 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.53	65.4%	17 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Rafael Jodar	2.50	40.0%	17 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.53	65.4%	17 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Rafael Jodar	2.58	38.8%	17 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.56	64.1%	17 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Rafael Jodar	2.76	36.2%	17 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Daniil Medvedev	1.57	63.7%	17 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Rafael Jodar	2.78	36.0%	17 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.53	65.4%	17 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Rafael Jodar	2.62	38.2%	17 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.49	67.1%	17 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Rafael Jodar	2.65	37.7%	17 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.50	66.7%	17 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Rafael Jodar	2.60	38.5%	17 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.53	65.4%	17 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Rafael Jodar	2.63	38.0%	17 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.50	66.7%	17 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Rafael Jodar	2.60	38.5%	17 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.49	67.1%	17 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Rafael Jodar	2.60	38.5%	17 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.56	64.1%	17 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Rafael Jodar	2.76	36.2%	17 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Daniil Medvedev	1.57	63.7%	17 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Rafael Jodar	2.78	36.0%	17 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.49	67.1%	17 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Rafael Jodar	2.65	37.7%	17 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.52	65.8%	17 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Rafael Jodar	2.68	37.3%	17 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.44	69.4%	17 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Rafael Jodar	2.45	40.8%	17 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	1.50	66.7%	17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	2.65	37.7%	17 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.47	68.0%	17 Oct 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Rafael Jodar	2.60	38.5%	17 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.49	67.1%	17 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Rafael Jodar	2.45	40.8%	17 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.50	66.7%	17 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Rafael Jodar	2.60	38.5%	17 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.50	66.7%	17 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Rafael Jodar	2.60	38.5%	17 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.53	65.4%	17 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Rafael Jodar	2.50	40.0%	17 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.49	67.1%	17 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Rafael Jodar	2.60	38.5%	17 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.44	69.4%	17 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Rafael Jodar	2.45	40.8%	17 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 15:02 UTC