| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 74.7% | 78% | -3.4% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 70.5% | 29.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 79.3% | 20.7% |
| logistic | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| Vitaliy Sachko | Samuele Pieri | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1663 | 1476 |
| Surface Elo | 1663 | 1476 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 02 Oct | A | Gianluca Cadenasso | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Dimitar Kuzmanov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Mika Petkovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Samuele Pieri | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Gianluca Cadenasso | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Carlos Taberner | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Laurent Lokoli | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Andrej Martin | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Vitaliy Sachko | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Samuele Pieri | 2 - 1 | Vitaliy Sachko |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.45 | 29.0% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.28 | 78.1% | 03 Oct 06:15 |