| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 54.9% | 36% | +18.4% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 50.0% | 34.3% |
| xgboost | 47.3% | 51.8% |
| logistic | 30.4% | 69.6% |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Washington Capitals | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1543 | 1599 |
| Surface Elo | 1543 | 1599 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | A | New York Rangers | 1 - 5 | L |
| 03 May | H | Montréal Canadiens | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 May | A | Montréal Canadiens | 1 - 0 | W |
| 29 Apr | H | Montréal Canadiens | 2 - 3 | L |
| 26 Apr | A | Montréal Canadiens | 3 - 2 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Carolina Hurricanes | 5 - 2 | W |
| 14 Apr | A | Columbus Blue Jackets | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Apr | H | Pittsburgh Penguins | 3 - 0 | W |
| 11 Apr | A | Pittsburgh Penguins | 6 - 3 | W |
| 08 Apr | A | Toronto Maple Leafs | 4 - 0 | W |
| 23 Nov 2025 | Washington Capitals | 3 - 5 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 09 Nov 2025 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 3 - 2 | Washington Capitals |
| 14 Oct 2025 | Washington Capitals | 3 - 2 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 01 Mar 2025 | Washington Capitals | 1 - 3 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 28 Nov 2024 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 4 - 5 | Washington Capitals |
| 26 Oct 2024 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 3 - 0 | Washington Capitals |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 1.51 | 66.2% | 03 Oct 21:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 2.74 | 36.5% | 03 Oct 21:20 |