| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 39.7% | 44% | -4.8% | |
| DC | Home or away | 74.2% | 80% | -5.9% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 52.8% | 60% | -7.0% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 61% | -7.7% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.2% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 40.4% | 25.2% | 34.4% |
| xgboost | 35.8% | 26.5% | 37.7% |
| logistic | 36.9% | 28.1% | 35.1% |
| Hornchurch | Tamworth | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1432 | 1410 |
| Surface Elo | 1432 | 1410 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.13 | 1.71 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.57 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.75 | 1.43 |
| Rest days | 14 | 14 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 07 Nov | H | Blackpool | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Nov | H | West Ham | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Oct | A | Fylde | 1 - 3 | L |
| 30 Oct | A | Fylde | 1 - 3 | L |
| 27 Oct | H | Yeovil | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Nov | H | Everton | 2 - 3 | L |
| 31 Oct | H | Woking | 0 - 1 | L |
| 31 Oct | H | Woking | 0 - 1 | L |
| 27 Oct | H | Scunthorpe | 4 - 1 | W |
| 27 Oct | H | Scunthorpe | 4 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.80 | 35.7% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.65 | 60.6% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.15 | 46.5% | 12 Nov 06:15 |