| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.1% | 70% | -7.8% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 87.3% | 91% | -3.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 83.2% | 88% | -4.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 53% | +4.5% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 48.9% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 54.7% | 27.0% | 18.3% |
| xgboost | 78.3% | 13.5% | 8.2% |
| logistic | 68.6% | 20.9% | 10.5% |
| Lazio | Parma | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1778 | 1586 |
| Surface Elo | 1778 | 1586 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 2.71 | 0.57 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 0.57 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.57 | 1.86 |
| Rest days | 6 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 7 W | 1 W · 2 D |
| 18 Oct | A | Juventus | 3 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Juventus | 3 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Monza | 3 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Monza | 3 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Venezia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Torino | 0 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Inter | 0 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Inter | 0 - 3 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Genoa | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Como | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Apr 2026 | Lazio | 1 - 1 | Parma |
| 13 Dec 2025 | Parma | 0 - 1 | Lazio |
| 28 Apr 2025 | Lazio | 2 - 2 | Parma |
| 01 Dec 2024 | Parma | 3 - 1 | Lazio |
| 12 May 2021 | Lazio | 1 - 0 | Parma |
| 10 Jan 2021 | Parma | 0 - 2 | Lazio |
| 09 Feb 2020 | Parma | 0 - 1 | Lazio |
| 22 Sep 2019 | Lazio | 2 - 0 | Parma |
| 17 Mar 2019 | Lazio | 4 - 1 | Parma |
| 21 Oct 2018 | Parma | 0 - 2 | Lazio |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 7.50 | 13.3% | 24 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.75 | 21.1% | 24 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.42 | 70.4% | 24 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.83 | 54.6% | 24 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.03 | 49.3% | 24 Oct 19:45 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 7.23 | 13.8% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.60 | 21.7% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.51 | 66.2% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.90 | 52.6% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.95 | 51.3% | 24 Oct 06:15 |